Thursday, May 3, 2007

A look at the future

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This forecast is based on the simple fact that every bubble pops. Every housing bubble in history has popped, and prices in those booms on record have fallen 35-40%. But we know this boom dwarfed the others.

In the end, prices must revert to a multiple of 10 - 12x rents, or 3x the income of the buyer. We are many times above that.

Thanks to paperdinero for the chart. You can get the chart for any state, county, or MSA on that site. Just click on your choice, and there is your chart, which starts in 1975.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

You wish. There is no way prices will go down in TO.

Etz3l said...

As I said, prices will revert to a multiple of 10 - 12x rents, or 3x the income of the buyer.

This is just one possible scenario. All roads lead to Rome.